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Pollinators are critical for food production and ecosystem function. Although native pollinators are thought to be declining, the evidence is limited. This first, taxonomically diverse assessment for mainland North America north of Mexico reveals that 22.6% (20.6 to 29.6%) of the 1,579 species in the best-studied vertebrate and insect pollinator groups have elevated risk of extinction. All three pollinating bat species are at risk and bees are the insect group most at risk (best estimate, 34.7% of 472 species assessed, range 30.3 to 43.0%). Substantial numbers of butterflies (19.5% of 632 species, range 19.1 to 21.0%) and moths (16.1% of 142 species, range 15.5 to 19.0%) are also at risk, with flower flies (14.7% of 295 species, range 11.5 to 32.9%), beetles (12.5% of 18 species, range 11.1 to 22.2%), and hummingbirds (0% of 17 species) more secure. At-risk pollinators are concentrated where diversity is highest, in the southwestern United States. Threats to pollinators vary geographically: climate change in the West and North, agriculture in the Great Plains, and pollution, agriculture, and urban development in the East. Woodland, shrubland/chaparral, and grassland habitats support the greatest numbers of at-risk pollinators. Strategies for improving pollinator habitat are increasingly available, and this study identifies species, habitats, and threats most in need of conservation actions at state, provincial, territorial, national, and continental levels. 

One of the defining features of the Anthropocene is eroding ecosystem services, decreases in biodiversity, and overall reductions in the abundance of once-common organisms, including many insects that play innumerable roles in natural communities and agricultural systems that support human society. It is now clear that the preservation of insects cannot rely solely on the legal protection of natural areas far removed from the densest areas of human habitation. Instead, a critical challenge moving forward is to intelligently manage areas that include intensively farmed landscapes, such as the Central Valley of California. Here we attempt to meet this challenge with a tool for modeling landscape connectivity for insects (with pollinators in particular in mind) that builds on available information including lethality of pesticides and expert opinion on insect movement. Despite the massive fragmentation of the Central Valley, we find that connectivity is possible, especially utilizing the restoration or improvement of agricultural margins, which (in their summed area) exceed natural areas. Our modeling approach is flexible and can be used to address a wide range of questions regarding both changes in land cover as well as changes in pesticide application rates. Finally, we highlight key steps that could be taken moving forward and the great many knowledge gaps that could be addressed in the field to improve future iterations of our modeling approach.